Publications
A number of "thought" pieces are being commissioned to examine in much greater detail some of the key issues raised by the core Future of Trade report. The first two of these have now been published, focusing respectively on climate impacts on trade infrastructure and future patterns of trade & related greenhouse gas emissions.
Find out more below ▼
Climate and biodiversity risks to EU food imports
May 2025
The EU is neither self-sufficient in key staples such as maize, rice and wheat or key import commodities for agrifood production such as cocoa, coffee and soy. This has important implications for both European food security and domestic business.
This study therefore sets out to examine the import dependency for each food type and establish to what extent it is vulnerable to environmental threats to better understand the scale of the problem faced by the EU. Based on this assessment the study seeks to assess the bloc’s preparedness and to make policy recommendations.
It builds upon a previous study of climate threats to UK food imports, undertaken by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. But in addition to the climate data, the new work also considers the implications of nature loss for security of supply to provide a complete picture.
The findings are sobering. Researchers found that over half the imports of each of the six imported food commodities were from climate vulnerable countries, with limited resources to adapt.
Furthermore, three of these – wheat, maize and cocoa - are also at significant risk from biodiversity-related impacts, amplifying the threat to supply already posed by the climate and expanding the amount of production at risk.
Impacts and risks from climate change on trade infrastructure
December 2023
This paper considers the current literature on both projected and current climate change impacts, which are already affecting prospects for trade and economic development around the world as extreme and sudden weather events and natural hazards increase in frequency and intensity.
Impacts on maritime, land and air transport infrastructure as well as manufacturing hubs are examined alongside the required adaptation responses.
The future of trade and CO2 emissions
November 2023
This paper is an exploration of the patterns of trade in the coming decade, based upon a review of literature. It establishes possible connections with another stream of literature, which points to the contribution of trade to CO2 emissions.
By connecting these two streams, its aim is to map out the possible enablers and obstacles that the future of trade could place on the transition towards the objective of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.